In 2015–2025, the total amount of income tax refunded from the state budget to beneficiaries of the mortgage subsidy programme, equivalent to the interest payments on mortgage loans, amounted to AMD 305 billion.
According to a study conducted within the framework of the German Economic Team (GET) project by Berlin Economics and Modex, total refunds to programme beneficiaries in 2026–2044 are projected to amount to AMD 1,098 billion. It should be noted that these projections are based on the cohort of beneficiaries as of the end of 2024.
In addition to the baseline projections, several alternative scenarios were assessed, including variations in exchange rates and interest rates. Under these scenarios, total refunds from the state budget in 2026–2044 are estimated to range between AMD 1,037 billion and AMD 1,273 billion.